Mark Worley of Redfin reports on housing prices, highlighting that home prices rose 0.5% in November 2024, marking the third consecutive month of such growth. Year-over-year, prices increased 5.7%, the smallest annual rise since October 2023, as annual price growth slowed for the sixth month. Elevated mortgage rates continue to limit home supply, keeping prices steadily climbing. 

Source: Redfin (December 2024)

Among the 50 largest U.S. metros, 13 recorded monthly price drops, with Fort Lauderdale, Tampa, and San Diego seeing the most significant declines. At the same time, Nassau County, NY, Charlotte, NC, and Minneapolis posted the largest gains.

“Home prices are likely to keep rising steadily throughout 2025 at a similar pace to this year…Elevated mortgage rates will cause many homeowners to hang onto their homes—and the low rates they have locked in. That means there will be enough buyers competing over a relatively low number of homes to keep prices ticking up consistently.” 

ATTOM Data Solutions released a new report showing that in Q4, housing affordability worsened as median home prices climbed to $364,750, and major homeownership expenses consumed 34% of the average national wage. This mark exceeds the preferred 28% lending guideline. This marks a three-year trend of declining affordability, with 98% of analyzed counties showing homes less affordable than historical averages. Despite slight mortgage rate declines, affordability challenges persist as expenses outpace wage growth, reversing a brief improvement in Q3. 

Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM, comments: “The U.S. housing market continues to generate great profits for most home sellers but also more and more financial stress for would-be buyers. Average workers now must shell out a larger portion of their wages for major home-ownership expenses than at any time since right before the housing market tanked in the late 2000s.”

Finally, Fannie Mae released a report last week stating that the housing market will remain subdued in 2025 due to persistent affordability challenges and the “lock-in effect” caused by elevated mortgage rates. While average mortgage rates are forecast to decline modestly but stay above 6%, home price growth is anticipated to decelerate but remain positive. Existing home sales are likely to hover near 30-year lows, with significant regional variation—Sun Belt markets may see stronger activity due to robust construction, while supply-constrained areas like the Northeast lag.

NAR vs Phoenix Realtors

Earlier this month, Brooklee Han of HousingWire reported that the conflict between the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and Phoenix Realtors (PAR) began when PAR launched its MLS Choice membership option, allowing real estate licensees to join the local association without also joining the Arizona Association of Realtors or NAR. This move challenges NAR’s longstanding three-way membership requirement, which mandates local, state, and national membership. NAR responded with a cease-and-desist letter, arguing that PAR’s program threatens the consistency and benefits of its integrated model, including market research, advocacy, and ethical standards. 

A second more recent article by Brooklee Han of HousingWire reports that the NAR has now initiated the process to revoke the PAR charter over its MLS Choice membership program. This program allows agents to access MLS services without joining the Arizona Association of Realtors or NAR. NAR claims the program violates its bylaws and threatens the integrity of the Realtor trademark. PAR, however, defends the program as an innovative solution tailored to meet varying professional needs, criticizing NAR’s actions as stifling progress in the industry.

Marian McPherson of Inman highlights that PAR’s alternative program, MLS Choice, offers agents access to state-compliant forms, legal aid, and education without requiring NAR or the Arizona Association of Realtors membership. While NAR insists this undermines its integrated membership model and the standards of the Realtor brand, PAR argues the program addresses diverse agent needs and promotes innovation. 

Stephanie Reid-Simons of Real Estate News comments on the story, quoting both NAR and PAR responses to the dispute. NAR states it “has no choice but to defend the Realtor trademark, our integrated model, and Realtors and consumers they serve. Without action, we put the benefits NAR members rely on—such as market research, business resources, a unified advocacy platform, and a single Code of Ethics—at risk.” 

PAR CEO Andy Fegley also commented: 

“We’ve been transparent from the beginning that the MLS Choice subscription is a scaled-down option of non-membership for real estate professionals to consider. It allows them to ask the question, ‘What level of programs and services do I actually need to be successful?’ And anyone serving real estate professionals should stand in support of that: creating the ideal environment for success. A ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach does nothing to spur this industry forward, something that desperately needs to happen.”

Sales and listings

Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports that in November 2024, U.S. new single-family home sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000, a 5.9% increase from October and an 8.7% rise year-over-year. Year-to-date, sales are up 2.4%. Inventory remained elevated at 490,000 units, representing an 8.9-month supply, well above the balanced level of six months.

Source: NAHB (December 2024)

Sarah Wolak of HousingWire reports that active U.S. housing listings rose 12% year-over-year during the four weeks ending December 22, 2024, reaching 954,703—the smallest increase since March. Pending sales dropped 3.4% year-over-year, the first decline in three months, while new listings remained flat. The median sales price climbed 6% annually to $383,725, with Philadelphia (17.1%) leading price gains.

Keith Griffith of Realtor.com highlights that new-home sales surged 6% as median prices fell to a two-year low of $402,600, a 6.3% drop year-over-year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This price decline and more affordable options saw 25% of new homes sell for under $300,000, a significant increase from prior months. Inventory continued to rise, with 490,000 homes available, representing 8.9 months of supply, compared to 3.8 months for existing homes. The Midwest and South led sales growth, with increases of 17.3% and 13.9%, respectively, while other regions saw declines or corrections from October spikes.

Lily Katz of Redfin reports that home sales surged in November in several expensive West Coast markets, with Portland, OR, leading at a 27.6% year-over-year increase, followed by San Jose (26.2%), Seattle (19.5%), and San Francisco (17.7%). Nationwide, sales rose 4.8%. Despite these gains, a severe shortage of new listings, down 20.3% in Portland and similarly in Oakland, San Jose, and Sacramento, has fueled competition. These markets, all with median sale prices above the national median of $430,107, highlight the growing demand despite limited inventory.

Diana Olick of CNBC comments on the same sales data, stating that “first-time homebuyers gained some ground, representing 30% of November sales, up from 27% in October, but slightly lower than a year ago. Cash is still king at 25% of sales. Investors, however, pulled back at just 13% of sales, down from 18% in November of last year.”

Skylar Olsen of Zillow comments on what the future looks like for home sales, noting that they forecast a modest recovery in home sales for 2025, projecting 4.16 million sales, up slightly from 4.06 million in 2024, as mortgage rates are expected to decline gradually. While new listings and inventory remain below pre-pandemic levels, both are improving, with total inventory now 26% below 2018-2019 norms—the smallest deficit since September 2020.